{"id":114,"date":"2020-03-31T10:44:22","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T15:44:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/research.american.edu\/carbonremoval\/?p=114"},"modified":"2020-03-31T10:44:22","modified_gmt":"2020-03-31T15:44:22","slug":"from-zero-to-hero-why-integrated-assessment-modeling-of-negative-emissions-technologies-is-hard-and-how-we-can-do-better","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/research.american.edu\/carbonremoval\/2020\/03\/31\/from-zero-to-hero-why-integrated-assessment-modeling-of-negative-emissions-technologies-is-hard-and-how-we-can-do-better\/","title":{"rendered":"From Zero to Hero?: Why Integrated Assessment Modeling of Negative Emissions Technologies Is Hard and How We Can Do Better"},"content":{"rendered":"

Authors: <\/strong>Jay Fuhrman1<\/sup>, Haewon McJeon2<\/sup>, Scott C. Doney3<\/sup>, William Shobe4<\/sup> and\u00a0Andres F. Clarens1<\/sup>*<\/sup><\/p>\n

1<\/sup>Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States<\/p>\n

2<\/sup>Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States<\/p>\n

3<\/sup>Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States<\/p>\n

4<\/sup>Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States<\/p>\n

Full citation: <\/strong>Fuhrman, Jay, Haewon McJeon, Scott C. Doney, William Shobe, and Andres F. Clarens. \u201cFrom Zero to Hero?: Why Integrated Assessment Modeling of Negative Emissions Technologies Is Hard and How We Can Do Better.\u201d Frontiers in Climate<\/i> 1 (2019): 11. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.3389\/fclim.2019.00011<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Abstract:<\/strong> Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) of the Earth\u2019s economic and climate system increasingly rely the presumed future ability to achieve negative emissions in order to limit global warming to \u201cwell below 2 C\u201d by 2100.\u00a0 The scales at which these models project so-called \u201cnegative emissions technologies\u201d (NETs) to be deployed rivals that of our current (positive) emissions.\u00a0 There are a number of ways in which we could in theory remove CO2<\/sub> from the atmosphere, all of which have their own set of potential synergies and tradeoffs with other goals for sustainable development. Yet the vast majority of scenarios assume the availability of just two NETs: bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, and afforestation. Just as the impacts of climate change itself will fall disproportionately on the developing world, IAM results suggest that so too, would the impacts of removing already-emitted CO2<\/sub> from the atmosphere using these methods. In all regions of the world but especially Asia, Latin America, and Africa, enormous amounts of land would need to be converted to bioenergy crop cultivation or managed forest, with profound implications for food security and biodiversity.\u00a0 Only a few recent studies have incorporated direct air capture, a fully engineered process previously thought too expensive to be viable but now receiving increasing attention. Other NETs (e.g., coastal wetlands restoration, accelerated weathering) have largely been excluded from IAM scenarios because they lack obvious connections with existing economic sectors. Our analysis finds that more complete treatment of NETs by IAMs could highlight substantial opportunities for more limited, sustainable deployment now<\/em>, provided the appropriate policy incentives. But modeling results suggesting large-scale future deployment of NETs should be communicated to and interpreted by policymakers and other stakeholders as warnings of the potential impacts of the NETs themselves, rather than prescriptive licenses to delay taking action and attempt to reverse the damage later.<\/p>\n

Read the full article in Frontiers in Climate here.\u00a0<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Authors: Jay Fuhrman1, Haewon McJeon2, Scott C. Doney3, William Shobe4 and\u00a0Andres F. Clarens1* 1Department of Engineering Systems and Environment, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States 2Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States 3Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States … <\/p>\n

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